[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciofe77f791":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciofe77f791","美股异动---大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌-西部数据(WDC)、希捷(STX)大幅反弹","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciofe77f791","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网获悉，周一，西部数据(WDC)盘初涨超7%，希捷科技(STX)涨超5%，上一交易日，东芝硬盘扩产消息引发板块股价回调，两只股票双双跌超10%。随后，摩根士丹利与伯恩斯坦相继发布调研报告，反驳市场恐慌，两家机构均认为市场对东芝扩产消息反应过度，实际对行业供给冲击有限；AI代理任务、物理AI催生增量存储需求，HDD供需紧张格局延续，维持希捷、西部数据看多评级，其中大摩将希捷列为首选标的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>摩根士丹利经过产业链走访调研表示，菲律宾工厂的扩产为东芝已规划两年的项目，年产能增速约30%，仅与行业整体供给增速持平，难以追上快速扩张的市场需求。受TDK、Resonac核心零部件约束、技术路线落后等因素制约，扩产落地时间偏激进，实现难度较高。日经报道提及的30%市场份额属于老旧目标，现实条件下很难达成，合理预期东芝市占率仅有望抬升至12‑13%。同时大摩确认，希捷、西部数据暂无新增扩产计划，行业价格策略也未发生调整。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>需求端方面，摩根士丹利指出近1‑2个月HDD需求出现加速，除传统公有云厂商以外，新锐云厂商、人形物理AI企业成为新增采购力量；AI智能体工作负载会产生大量需要持久留存的上下文数据，进一步拉动硬盘消耗。现货市场价格走强，非长协订单现货报价达到3‑5美分\u002FGB，显著高于合约价，验证行业定价上行逻辑。2026年行业供给缺口约300EB，2027‑2028年缺口将扩大至400EB。估值层面，希捷对应2028年基准情景EPS为10倍PE，乐观情景仅6.8倍；西部数据对应2028年基准情景8.5倍PE，乐观情景5.8倍，估值具备吸引力。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>伯恩斯坦同样认为东芝扩产属于“小题大做”。即便乐观假设东芝完成产能近乎翻倍，叠加希捷、西数保持25%的年容量增长，东芝市占率也仅能由11.2%提升至16.8%，远达不到30%。从资本开支角度，报道提及3.8亿美元投入不足以支撑大规模产能翻倍；东芝面密度技术显著落后同业，高容量产品迭代滞后，扩产将被迫增加更多物理盘体，资本压力更大，执行风险突出。伯恩斯坦重申对两家公司“跑赢大盘”评级，希捷目标价1350美元，西部数据目标价770美元，建议借本次股价回调布局。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 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