[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciof98aea62":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciof98aea62","MRVL专家调研精华：CPO 遇阻延期，NPO 救场，订单反而排到两年后","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciof98aea62","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>英伟达最大的对手\u003C\u002Fspan> AMD \u003Cspan>，刚把\u003C\u002Fspan> Marvell \u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan> CPO \u003Cspan>方案退了货——但别急着看空，因为客户连\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>降级方案\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>都等不及，\u003C\u002Fspan>Marvell \u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan> 1.6T DSP \u003Cspan>积压订单已经排到了两年后。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>（说明一下：调研专家没有点客户的名，只说是\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>一家非英伟达的大型\u003C\u002Fspan> GPU \u003Cspan>公司\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>。综合调研\u003C\u002Fspan>Meta\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>OpenAI \u003Cspan>是终端买家，而\u003C\u002Fspan> Marvell \u003Cspan>恰好通过\u003C\u002Fspan> AMD \u003Cspan>的供应链向这两家间接供货\u003C\u002Fspan>S\u003Cspan>所以美股投资网推测，这个客户大概率就是\u003C\u002Fspan> AMD\u003Cspan>。）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这就是这份专家调研最反直觉的地方：坏消息是\u003C\u002Fspan> CPO \u003Cspan>技术翻车了，好消息是需求旺到没人计较。下面慢慢说。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这个项目，本是\u003C\u002Fspan> AMD \u003Cspan>为\u003C\u002Fspan> Meta\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>OpenAI \u003Cspan>这些大买家准备的：\u003C\u002Fspan>6.4T \u003Cspan>带宽、\u003C\u002Fspan>32 \u003Cspan>通道的\u003C\u002Fspan> CPO \u003Cspan>光互联方案，连\u003C\u002Fspan> Marvell \u003Cspan>的交换\u003C\u002Fspan> ASIC \u003Cspan>一起打包——\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD \u003Cspan>自己没有光学和交换芯片技术，供应商本来就只能在博通和\u003C\u002Fspan> Marvell \u003Cspan>之间选。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>结果\u003C\u002Fspan> 2026 \u003Cspan>年初样品一出来，性能不达标，良率也有问题。\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD \u003Cspan>当机立断：改走\u003C\u002Fspan> NPO\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这里有个关键细节，散户特别容易误读：出货量预测一个字没改，改的只是交付方案。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>客户背后的\u003C\u002Fspan> Meta\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>OpenAI \u003Cspan>们只关心一件事——按时交货。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>CPO \u003Cspan>是理想答案，但\u003C\u002Fspan> NPO \u003Cspan>能交，就接受。至于\u003C\u002Fspan> NPO \u003Cspan>功耗高、成本高？在抢建\u003C\u002Fspan> AI \u003Cspan>基础设施的年头，这排不上号。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>所以别被\u003C\u002Fspan>\"CPO \u003Cspan>受挫\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>的标题吓到。专家的原话是：\u003C\u002Fspan>NPO \u003Cspan>只是两三年生命周期的过渡品，\u003C\u002Fspan>2028 \u003Cspan>年市场需求就可能达到\u003C\u002Fspan> 3,000 \u003Cspan>万颗——过渡都能过渡出这么大的盘子。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>CPO \u003Cspan>为什么翻车？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>理想中的\u003C\u002Fspan> CPO\u003Cspan>，是光学模块和\u003C\u002Fspan> GPU \u003Cspan>封在一起。但现在的现实是，\u003C\u002Fspan>Marvell\u003Cspan>、博通的做法都是\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>两家分住、焊在同一块主板上\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>200G \u003Cspan>的高速电信号穿过层层基板和焊点，损耗太严重，怎么修都修不好。最后只能加一颗\u003C\u002Fspan> retimer\u003Cspan>（简化版\u003C\u002Fspan> DSP\u003Cspan>）来整形信号——\u003C\u002Fspan>32 \u003Cspan>个通道加\u003C\u002Fspan> 4 \u003Cspan>颗，把这些芯片和光引擎挤在同一块板上。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这个形态，就叫\u003C\u002Fspan> NPO\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>有意思的是，这不是\u003C\u002Fspan> Marvell \u003Cspan>一家的狼狈。专家明说：博通、英伟达、\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003Cspan>、谷歌、亚马逊，全行业都踩了\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>路线太激进\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>的坑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>英伟达押注台积电的真共封装，良率更惨，而且那种结构里塞不进\u003C\u002Fspan> DSP\u003Cspan>——转\u003C\u002Fspan> NPO \u003Cspan>之后，据说还把这部分外包给了旭创。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>光互联是必答题，\u003C\u002Fspan>CPO \u003Cspan>暂时写不出来，那就先用\u003C\u002Fspan> NPO \u003Cspan>的解法交卷。但没人放弃\u003C\u002Fspan> CPO\u003Cspan>，各家都是双线并行，因为\u003C\u002Fspan> CPO \u003Cspan>才是终局。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>绕场一圈看下来，你会明白为什么\u003C\u002Fspan> Marvell \u003Cspan>现在的位置很舒服。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>亚马逊是最实在的买家。\u003C\u002Fspan>Trainium 4\u003Cspan>（\u003C\u002Fspan>2027 \u003Cspan>年下半年）全面转光互联，\u003C\u002Fspan>CPO \u003Cspan>来不及就果断\u003C\u002Fspan> NPO\u003Cspan>；\u003C\u002Fspan>Trainium 5 \u003Cspan>的项目已经启动，\u003C\u002Fspan>Marvell \u003Cspan>收购的\u003C\u002Fspan> Celestial AI \u003Cspan>方案很受青睐。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>谷歌嘴上说不要，行动很诚实——私下一直在找\u003C\u002Fspan> CPO\u002FNPO \u003Cspan>方案，还向\u003C\u002Fspan> Marvell \u003Cspan>咨询过，近期签大协议很大程度上就是为了制衡博通和英伟达。道理很简单：\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU \u003Cspan>可以自研，光学自研不了，这环节只能买。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>微软是最稳的基本盘：\u003C\u002Fspan>ZR \u003Cspan>相干光模块的最大客户，下一代产品已基本锁定\u003C\u002Fspan> Marvell\u003Cspan>。至于传闻中\u003C\u002Fspan> 2027 \u003Cspan>年底量产几十万台\u003C\u002Fspan> MicroLED \u003Cspan>设备，专家的原话是——有明确交付时间表\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>令人意外\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>，早期研究还差不多。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>OpenAI \u003Cspan>则提了个\u003C\u002Fspan> 400G PAM4 \u003Cspan>的激进项目，专家判断三两年内不现实，因为整条技术链（\u003C\u002Fspan>TIA\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>Driver\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>SerDes\u003Cspan>）都还没熟。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这份调研里最值钱的数字\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>1.6T DSP\u003Cspan>：积压订单排两年后。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>行业盛传这一代\u003C\u002Fspan> DSP \u003Cspan>某个通道性能不佳、公司在重做修复版（\u003C\u002Fspan>respin\u003Cspan>）——是真的，但完全不影响接单；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>ZR \u003Cspan>模块：月出货\u003C\u002Fspan> 4-5 \u003Cspan>万个，单价\u003C\u002Fspan>2,000-3,000 \u003Cspan>美元，营收全球第一；谷歌直接下开放式订单——只要符合标准的\u003C\u002Fspan> 800G ZR\u003Cspan>，出厂多少要多少。现在的问题是交不出货，瓶颈在整个供应链的产能；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>国内旭创、新易盛的定位：组装能力世界一流，但\u003C\u002Fspan> DSP\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>TIA\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>Driver \u003Cspan>这些高利润核心芯片几乎全要从\u003C\u002Fspan> Marvell \u003Cspan>买。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>订单是模块厂的，利润的大头在芯片厂——这句是专家给国内光模块股最精准的注脚。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>风险在哪？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>公平的讲法必须有两面。\u003C\u002Fspan>NPO \u003Cspan>是过渡生意，两三年窗口期，终局还是要打\u003C\u002Fspan> CPO \u003Cspan>之战；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>博通、英伟达、\u003C\u002Fspan>COHR \u003Cspan>甚至\u003C\u002Fspan> ALAB\u003Cspan>（专家的比喻：博通是全才，\u003C\u002Fspan>Marvell \u003Cspan>是小一号的博通，\u003C\u002Fspan>Astera \u003Cspan>是更小一号的\u003C\u002Fspan> Marvell\u003Cspan>）都在大客户身边抢位置；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>那批硅谷初创公司技术上不难，死穴是拿不到台积电的晶圆产能——没有大客户背书，连门票都没有。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股投资网认为，这份调研讲的不是一个技术翻车故事，而是一个\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>需求旺到容错\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>的故事。光互联的拐点已经过了，现在拼的不是方向对错，是谁能按时、稳定地把货交出来——而眼下，交不出货恰恰是整个行业唯一共同的烦恼。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>#\u003Cspan>美股\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FM\u002FMRVL\u002FMRVL.jpg","2026-09-10T17:32:50","2026.09.10","2026\u002F09\u002F10",56476,[22],"MRVL","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]