[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioc8031af8":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioc8031af8","内存上行周期，可能比市场想象得更猛","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioc8031af8","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>内存市场现在最大的分歧，是这轮涨幅到底会有多夸张。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>BofA \u003Cspan>最新的判断很有意思：市场可能仍然低估了\u003C\u002Fspan> 2027 \u003Cspan>年\u003C\u002Fspan> DRAM \u003Cspan>的上行弹性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>过去一段时间，投资者对内存股的担忧主要集中在三点：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>长期协议会不会限制\u003C\u002Fspan> ASP \u003Cspan>上涨；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>行业资本开支已经很高，会不会很快带来供给；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>GPU \u002F CPU \u003Cspan>去规格化，会不会压低单颗芯片所需的内存容量。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>但\u003C\u002Fspan> BofA \u003Cspan>认为，\u003C\u002Fspan>NVIDIA \u003Cspan>给出的\u003C\u002Fspan> 2027 \u003Cspan>年销售增长指引，可能会让这些谨慎派重新修正模型。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>关键点在于：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>如果\u003C\u002Fspan> NVIDIA 2027 \u003Cspan>年销售增长达到约\u003C\u002Fspan> 70%\u003Cspan>，那么对应的内存需求增长可能不只是\u003C\u002Fspan> 48%\u003Cspan>，而是有机会冲到\u003C\u002Fspan> 80% \u003Cspan>甚至更高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这和\u003C\u002Fspan> BofA \u003Cspan>目前全球\u003C\u002Fspan> DRAM \u003Cspan>销售增长\u003C\u002Fspan> 48% \u003Cspan>的基准预测相比，明显更激进。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>当前基准假设是：\u003C\u002Fspan>ASP \u003Cspan>上涨\u003C\u002Fspan> 24%\u003Cspan>，位增长\u003C\u002Fspan> 19%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>为什么还有更高空间？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>第一，\u003C\u002Fspan>NVIDIA \u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan> 70% \u003Cspan>增长本身已经是在“内存偏紧”的前提下给出的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>如果\u003C\u002Fspan> Rubin\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>Vera \u003Cspan>平台放量更快，或者\u003C\u002Fspan> AI \u003Cspan>加速器需求继续超预期，内存缺口可能会被进一步放大。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>第二，需求并不只来自\u003C\u002Fspan> NVIDIA\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>ASIC\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU \u003Cspan>阵营也在更积极抢\u003C\u002Fspan> HBM\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>DRAM \u003Cspan>和\u003C\u002Fspan> NAND\u003Cspan>，而且部分客户为了锁供应，可能愿意付出比\u003C\u002Fspan> NVIDIA \u003Cspan>更高的价格。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>第三，如果三星、\u003C\u002Fspan>SK \u003Cspan>海力士、美光释放的新产能继续被\u003C\u002Fspan> NVIDIA \u003Cspan>和超大规模云厂商吸收，\u003C\u002Fspan>2027 \u003Cspan>年\u003C\u002Fspan> ASP \u003Cspan>就不一定只是温和上涨。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>BofA \u003Cspan>提到，如果\u003C\u002Fspan> ASP \u003Cspan>每个季度环比上涨\u003C\u002Fspan> 10%\u003Cspan>，那么全球\u003C\u002Fspan> DRAM \u003Cspan>销售增长可能超过\u003C\u002Fspan> 80%\u003Cspan>，对应\u003C\u002Fspan> ASP \u003Cspan>同比上涨约\u003C\u002Fspan> 46%\u003Cspan>，位增长约\u003C\u002Fspan> 19%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这才是最关键的变量。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这轮内存周期和过去不一样的地方在于：\u003C\u002Fspan> AI \u003Cspan>客户在提前锁产能、签长期协议、抢\u003C\u002Fspan> HBM \u003Cspan>和高端\u003C\u002Fspan> DRAM\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>换句话说，供给增加不一定马上压价格，反而可能被\u003C\u002Fspan> AI \u003Cspan>需求快速吃掉。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股投资网认为接下来真正要注意的是：\u003C\u002Fspan>2027 \u003Cspan>年\u003C\u002Fspan> ASP \u003Cspan>是否真的能持续按季度上行。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>如果\u003C\u002Fspan> 10% QoQ \u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan> ASP \u003Cspan>涨幅兑现，\u003C\u002Fspan>BofA \u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan> 80% DRAM \u003Cspan>销售增长情景就不再是极端乐观，而可能成为市场必须重新定价的基准。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这对\u003C\u002Fspan> $MU \u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>$SKHY \u003Cspan>、三星、\u003C\u002Fspan>$SNDK \u003Cspan>这类存储链公司，都意味着估值逻辑可能继续上修。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>市场现在可能还在用传统周期股眼光看内存。但\u003C\u002Fspan> AI \u003Cspan>正在把这轮周期变得更长、更紧，也更难预测。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>$NVDA $AMD #\u003Cspan>美股\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>【原创声明】\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>本文由美股投资网（\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax.com\u003Cspan>）研究团队原创完成。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>原创机构：美股投资网\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>英文品牌：\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>本文基于公开财报、\u003C\u002Fspan>SEC\u003Cspan>文件、市场数据、机构资金、期权交易及产业链信息进行独立分析\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如需引用本文，请注明：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>“美股投资网（\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax.com\u003Cspan>）原创研究”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FM\u002FMU\u002FMU.jpg","2026-08-29T14:23:14","2026.08.29","2026\u002F08\u002F29",36174,[22],"MU","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]