[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioc29d8cdc":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioc29d8cdc","大摩维持甲骨文(ORCL)“中性”评级：OCI业绩达标，但毛利率结构性压力成价值枷锁","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioc29d8cdc","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网P获悉，摩根士丹利分析师Sanjit Singh在最新的报告中维持甲骨文(ORCL)“中性”评级和210美元目标价，报告标题精准概括了这份财报的核心矛盾“OCI业绩达标，毛利率还有待提高”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>此前，甲骨文交出了一份近乎无可挑剔的2027财年第一季度财报。营收193.5亿美元，同比增长30%;云基础设施(OCI)营收74亿美元，同比激增121%;单季新增AI云合同超过300亿美元;剩余履约义务(RPO)飙升至6640亿美元，同比暴增2090亿美元。然而，这份财报引发的股价反应，却成为近期科技股中最具戏剧性的“深V样本”——盘后一度涨近8%，次日却收跌1.74%，年内累计跌幅仍超过20%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>当运营卓越与股票表现之间的鸿沟持续扩大时，甲骨文面临的已不是一次财报的成败，而是一场关于“AI基建商业模式能否被华尔街接受”的根本性质疑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>大摩的“中性”立场并非对甲骨文AI叙事的否定，而是一种审慎的“等待验证”。该行认可OCI产能交付分散在多个地点、不依赖单一项目;认可GPU合约到期后平均溢价20%，表明公司拥有定价权而非被迫续约;也认可200亿美元股权融资计划的完成消除了短期股权稀释压力。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>但大摩的核心保留在于AI基础设施业务的毛利率尚未证明能够达到公司传统软件业务的高水平。当云基础设施收入占比持续上升时，整体毛利率的结构性下行压力将不可避免。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>真正的“房间里的大象”285亿美元资本开支与负54亿自由现金流\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这才是股价与基本面背离的根本原因。甲骨文当季资本支出飙升至285亿美元，较去年同期的85亿美元增长超过两倍。自由现金流从去年同期的负3.62亿美元急剧恶化至负54亿美元。公司债务规模已达1250亿美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>全年资本开支指引维持在900亿至950亿美元区间。管理层预计2027财年净资本支出约700亿美元，远高于上一财年的557亿美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>问题的关键在于当一家公司每个季度烧掉近300亿美元来建设数据中心，而收入增长虽然强劲但远不足以覆盖这种级别的资本消耗时，投资者需要的是一个关于“何时能产生正自由现金流”的清晰时间表。 甲骨文目前给出的答案是“一旦进入爬坡阶段”——但这需要多长时间?资本市场的耐心能否持续到那个时刻?\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>摩根士丹利在报告中明确指出，AI基础设施业务的毛利率和自由现金流转化，是决定甲骨文估值能否从“中性”转向“增持”的关键变量。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化模型，建立了一个股市数据库 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa> 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]