[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciob50280a6":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciob50280a6","华尔街知名独立投行Evercore首次覆盖LITE","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciob50280a6","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Evercore ISI\u003Cspan>首次覆盖\u003C\u002Fspan>Lumentum\u003Cspan>（\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>），这份报告里最重要的不是“\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>光通信还能涨”，而是一个更直接的判断：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>需求还在加速，但真正限制行业增长的，已经开始变成\u003C\u002Fspan>InP\u003Cspan>激光器供给。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>InP\u003Cspan>就是磷化铟。简单说，它是很多高速光通信激光器的核心材料，但生产门槛高、扩产慢，而且现在供给偏紧。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>市场以前更多在交易“\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>数据中心要更多光模块”。\u003C\u002Fspan>Evercore\u003Cspan>现在往前推了一步：\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>加速器越多，连接需求增长越快，最后卡住系统的可能不是芯片，而是光互连。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这也是为什么它对\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>给出这么高的盈利弹性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Evercore\u003Cspan>模型里，\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE FY28 EPS\u003Cspan>大约是\u003C\u002Fspan>35\u003Cspan>美元，对应未来几年约\u003C\u002Fspan>60%\u003Cspan>的复合增长。更激进一点，它认为存在做到\u003C\u002Fspan>45\u003Cspan>—\u003C\u002Fspan>50\u003Cspan>美元的路径。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这个数字重要，不是因为听起来高，而是它在重新定义市场怎么看\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>：不是一只单纯跟着光模块周期波动的公司，而是一家有可能靠供需紧张、产品升级和利润率提升，把收入增长真正变成利润增长的上游资产。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Evercore\u003Cspan>给出的逻辑主要有四条：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>光学\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>市场现在大约\u003C\u002Fspan>180\u003Cspan>亿美元，管理层预计\u003C\u002Fspan>2030\u003Cspan>年可能超过\u003C\u002Fspan>900\u003Cspan>亿美元，年复合增速接近\u003C\u002Fspan>40%\u003Cspan>。这意味着\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>面对的不是单一产品周期，而是收发器、\u003C\u002Fspan>OCS\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>CPO\u003Cspan>、相干光学一起扩容。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>InP\u003Cspan>光学通道需求预计到\u003C\u002Fspan>2030\u003Cspan>年复合增长约\u003C\u002Fspan>85%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>从\u003C\u002Fspan>FY23\u003Cspan>以来已经把\u003C\u002Fspan>EML\u003Cspan>产量提升了\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan>倍，但供应仍然短缺超过\u003C\u002Fspan>30%\u003Cspan>。这说明问题不是有没有订单，而是能不能生产出来。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>毛利率可能从\u003C\u002Fspan>FY26\u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan>46%\u003Cspan>升到\u003C\u002Fspan>FY28\u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan>54%\u003Cspan>。如果\u003C\u002Fspan>CPO\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>NPO\u003Cspan>这类高价值产品占比继续提升，部分产品毛利率可能达到\u003C\u002Fspan>60%\u003Cspan>左右。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>OCS\u003Cspan>也是一条独立增长线。\u003C\u002Fspan>OCS\u003Cspan>就是光路交换，用镜面直接切换光信号路径。\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>在\u003C\u002Fspan>MEMS\u003Cspan>技术上已经做了\u003C\u002Fspan>20\u003Cspan>年，公司此前给出的\u003C\u002Fspan>CY25\u003Cspan>到\u003C\u002Fspan>CY28\u003Cspan>单位出货复合增速超过\u003C\u002Fspan>150%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>我更在意第二点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>供给短缺超过\u003C\u002Fspan>30%\u003Cspan>，同时产能已经扩了\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan>倍，这比单纯的需求增长更重要。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>因为需求强只能保证收入有机会涨，供给紧才有可能把定价权留在上游。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>如果\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>后面还能继续提价，或者产品结构继续往高毛利方向走，那\u003C\u002Fspan>EPS\u003Cspan>增长速度就可能明显快于收入增长。这才是\u003C\u002Fspan>Evercore\u003Cspan>敢往\u003C\u002Fspan>45\u003Cspan>—\u003C\u002Fspan>50\u003Cspan>美元\u003C\u002Fspan>EPS\u003Cspan>去看的原因。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>市场现在押的，也不是某一代\u003C\u002Fspan>800G\u003Cspan>或者\u003C\u002Fspan>1.6T\u003Cspan>产品能卖多久。而是\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>基础设施从机架内、集群间一路扩展到数据中心之间以后，每单位算力需要的光学连接越来越多。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这让\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>的增长来源变得更分散。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Scale-up\u003Cspan>是机架内连接，\u003C\u002Fspan>Scale-out\u003Cspan>是集群之间连接，\u003C\u002Fspan>Scale-across\u003Cspan>是数据中心之间连接。只要\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>计算继续扩张，这三层都会吃光学器件。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这事对股价真正有影响的地方，是市场可能开始给\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>更高的盈利确定性，而不是只给一个周期股估值。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股投资网认为，\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>现在最核心的逻辑已经从“光通信景气”转向了\u003C\u002Fspan>InP\u003Cspan>供给稀缺\u003C\u002Fspan>+\u003Cspan>产品结构升级\u003C\u002Fspan>+\u003Cspan>利润率扩张。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>接下来我会重点盯三个东西：\u003C\u002Fspan>InP\u003Cspan>产能扩张速度、毛利率能不能按计划往\u003C\u002Fspan>50%\u003Cspan>以上走，以及\u003C\u002Fspan>CPO\u002FOCS\u003Cspan>这些高价值产品能不能真正进入大规模收入兑现。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>失效条件也很清楚。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>如果\u003C\u002Fspan>InP\u003Cspan>供给突然快速释放，竞争对手扩产速度明显超过预期，或者\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>数据中心资本开支放缓，那么现在这套“供给紧\u003C\u002Fspan>+\u003Cspan>利润率扩张”的逻辑就会被削弱。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>所以这份\u003C\u002Fspan>Evercore\u003Cspan>报告真正想说的，不是\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>还有多少订单。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>而是：现在最值钱的，可能已经不是需求，而是能不能把这些激光器做出来。\u003C\u002Fspan>#\u003Cspan>美股\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>$LITE $COHR\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>【原创声明】\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>本文由美股投资网（\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax.com\u003Cspan>）研究团队原创完成。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>原创机构：美股投资网\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>英文品牌：\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>本文基于公开财报、\u003C\u002Fspan>SEC\u003Cspan>文件、市场数据、机构资金、期权交易及产业链信息进行独立分析\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如需引用本文，请注明：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>“美股投资网（\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax.com\u003Cspan>）原创研究”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FL\u002FLITE\u002FLITE.jpg","2026-09-01T18:37:01","2026.09.01","2026\u002F09\u002F01",32650,[22],"LITE","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]