[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioaa88a265":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioaa88a265","闪迪暴涨，华尔街真正重新定价的是什么？","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioaa88a265","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>闪迪今天投资者日之后大涨，很多人第一反应可能是：又是\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>，又是存储涨价。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>但我觉得真正重要的不是这些。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>过去一个月，市场一直在担心一件事：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>现在\u003C\u002Fspan>NAND\u003Cspan>这么赚钱，到底还能赚多久？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>因为存储行业过去最大的特点就是周期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>价格涨、利润暴增，然后行业扩产，供给回来，价格再掉下去。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>所以即使闪迪现在利润非常夸张，市场之前也不敢轻易把这种盈利能力一直算到\u003C\u002Fspan>2028\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>2029\u003Cspan>年。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>但今天闪迪直接把这个问题回答了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>公司给出了\u003C\u002Fspan>FY2028\u003Cspan>到\u003C\u002Fspan>FY2030\u003Cspan>的长期模型：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>收入每年保持中高双位数增长，\u003C\u002Fspan>Non-GAAP\u003Cspan>毛利率大约\u003C\u002Fspan>80%\u003Cspan>，更关键的是——营业利润率目标依然接近\u003C\u002Fspan>75%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这句话真正改变了市场的预期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>因为闪迪最新一个季度的毛利率已经达到\u003C\u002Fspan>84.6%\u003Cspan>，营业利润超过\u003C\u002Fspan>70\u003Cspan>亿美元。之前市场可以把它理解成周期高点，但现在管理层告诉你：我们认为这种超高盈利能力，不只是\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan>年的短期现象，而是可以维持到\u003C\u002Fspan>2030\u003Cspan>年前后。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>于是华尔街开始重新算账。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>举个简单的情景。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>假设\u003C\u002Fspan>FY27\u003Cspan>收入最终能做到\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>亿美元左右，再按照公司长期模型中大约\u003C\u002Fspan>17%\u003Cspan>的收入增速中枢往后推：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>到\u003C\u002Fspan>FY30\u003Cspan>，收入大概可以来到\u003C\u002Fspan>800\u003Cspan>亿美元附近。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>如果\u003C\u002Fspan>75%\u003Cspan>的营业利润率真的能够维持，营业利润就接近\u003C\u002Fspan>600\u003Cspan>亿美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>再按照目前公司使用的\u003C\u002Fspan>15%\u003Cspan>左右税率、\u003C\u002Fspan>1.55\u003Cspan>亿左右稀释股本粗略计算，理论\u003C\u002Fspan>EPS\u003Cspan>甚至可以来到\u003C\u002Fspan>300\u003Cspan>美元以上，接近\u003C\u002Fspan>330\u003Cspan>美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这里一定要注意：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>330\u003Cspan>美元不是闪迪官方给的\u003C\u002Fspan>EPS\u003Cspan>指引，而是市场根据公司今天这套长期模型倒推出来的一个情景。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>但这也解释了为什么今天股价反应这么大。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>因为过去市场交易的是：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>“闪迪现在很赚钱，但这是\u003C\u002Fspan>NAND\u003Cspan>周期顶部。”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>今天市场开始重新考虑另一个可能：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>如果\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>真的改变了\u003C\u002Fspan>NAND\u003Cspan>的需求结构，这轮利润高点，会不会比过去任何一轮周期都维持得更久？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>而闪迪今天给出的其他信息，其实都在支撑这个逻辑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>公司已经和\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan>个客户签订长期\u003C\u002Fspan>NBM\u003Cspan>协议，这些协议覆盖大约\u003C\u002Fspan>50%\u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan>FY27 bit\u003Cspan>出货，到\u003C\u002Fspan>FY28\u003Cspan>提高到大约三分之二。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>它的意义不是单纯多了几个大订单，而是让闪迪未来几年的销量、价格和现金流变得更可预测，降低过去\u003C\u002Fspan>NAND\u003Cspan>行业最让投资者害怕的周期波动。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最后还有一个很直接的利好：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>公司表示，在完成业务投资之后，未来计划把\u003C\u002Fspan>100%\u003Cspan>的超额现金返还给股东。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股投资网认为，今天闪迪最重要的变化不是又多了一个\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>故事。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>而是管理层第一次非常明确地给市场画出了一个一直延伸到\u003C\u002Fspan>2030\u003Cspan>年的盈利框架。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>市场原来担心的是周期什么时候结束，现在开始重新思考：这轮周期，会不会根本和以前不一样。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这才是今天\u003C\u002Fspan>SNDK\u003Cspan>真正被重新定价的地方。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FS\u002FSNDK\u002FSNDK.jpg","2026-08-14T05:04:14","2026.08.14","2026\u002F08\u002F14",31216,[22],"SNDK","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]