[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioa7131186":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioa7131186","巴里警示房利美(FNMA)见顶：技术形态暗示反弹终结","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioa7131186","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>据 Woofun AI 消息，因《大空头》一书而闻名的投资者迈克尔·巴里对房利美(FNMA)与房地美(FMCC)的投资价值做出最新定性，直言这两家抵押贷款巨头的股票现已毫无价值。尽管巴里在不到一年前曾披露持有这两家公司的股份，但鉴于其自 2008 年金融危机以来长期处于政府管控之下，当前的市场表现已彻底改变了其基本面逻辑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>股价的剧烈波动揭示了市场预期的快速逆转。在唐纳德·特朗普 2024 年大选获胜后，市场普遍预期他将解除对这两家公司的管制，从而引发了一轮显著上涨。2024 年选举日当天，房利美(FNMA)的股价仅为 1.39 美元；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>然而，随着利好发酵，该股在 2025 年 9 月 11 日飙升至 15.31 美元的峰值。随后行情急转直下，周五收盘时股价已跌至 4.04 美元。这意味着股价从峰值下跌了 74%，几乎抹去了选举后反弹所带来的涨幅的约 80%。房地美(FMCC)的走势如出一辙，从 1.20 美元涨至 14.15 美元，随后回落至 3.68 美元。在周日发布的一篇新闻简报中，巴里指出这两只股票的走势都形成了'头肩顶'形态，交易员通常视此为反弹终结的信号。'从技术分析的角度来看，这种走势意味着这些股票已经毫无价值，'巴里写道。他透露自己本周已在两只股票上采取了操作，但未公开具体方向。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>值得注意的是，2025 年 12 月他曾预计两家公司的上市将推动股价上升，但现实背离了预期。Woofun AI 整理数据显示，巴里在 X 平台上进一步强调，这两只股票形成了极为明显的'头肩顶加肘部'形态，印证了见顶迹象。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>深层风险源于 2008 年的纾困措施遗留问题。美国财政部持有优先股，这类股票在普通股东获得任何收益之前必须先得到偿还，且每过一个季度，这部分债务数额都会增加。巴里援引股价数据以及投资银行 KBW 的分析报告指出，华尔街越来越预期美国财政部会将这些优先股转换为普通股。他估计，这样的转换将会使现有股东的持股比例至少下降 90%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>此外，宏观市场环境亦不容乐观。今年夏季，那些并非受益于人工智能概念的股票遭受严重打击。巴里认为，参与反弹行情的股票数量正在减少，其比例已降至接近 2000 年时的水平。此前，他已警告 Anthropic 的估值存在泡沫，并指出当前股市正处于一种否认现实的状态，如同 2000 年和 2008 年危机发生之前的情形。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>解决路径完全依赖于华盛顿的决策。巴里曾撰文指出，普通股东需要两样东西一是结束政府的管控，二是大幅削减美国财政部的债权要求。然而，目前这两点都尚未实现。对于普通股东而言，能否摆脱困境不再取决于市场情绪，而是取决于华盛顿是否愿意重新定义债权与股权的边界。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化模型，建立了一个股市数据库 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa> 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]