[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio6c753175":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio6c753175","大摩：AI算力需求推动阿斯麦(ASML)设备景气，存量设备业务成为第二增长曲线","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio6c753175","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网获悉，10月14日，摩根士丹利发布阿斯麦(ASML)最新研报，维持该股“增持”评级，目标价1700欧元。截至10月13日，阿斯麦收盘报1509.60欧元，距离目标价尚有上行空间。AI算力芯片带来的设备旺盛需求，成为驱动公司业绩与订单景气度的核心引擎。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>从已披露的2026年第三季度业绩来看，阿斯麦实现总营收116.62亿欧元，基本符合市场一致预期;毛利率大幅跑赢预期，录得57.5%，较市场预期高出147个基点。销量提升叠加业务结构优化，尤其是存量设备管理(IBM)业务表现亮眼，该板块单季收入32.89亿欧元，超预期13个百分点，成为拉高盈利的关键力量。存量业务以设备升级、改造维护为主，盈利水平显著高于新设备销售，正在成为阿斯麦的第二增长曲线。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>订单端传递出行业长周期的高景气信号。公司管理层表示，订单可见度已经延伸至2030年，2028年已经拿到大量确定订单，2029年市场需求热度高涨，甚至出现部分2030年意向订单，下游晶圆厂扩产意愿强烈。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>基于旺盛的下游需求，阿斯麦上调后续经营指引。第四季度公司指引营收区间142-152亿欧元，毛利率57%，其中存量设备管理业务预计营收37亿欧元，较市场预期高出23%。受四季度指引带动，2026全年营收指引收紧至440-450亿欧元，落在原420-460亿欧元区间的上沿，全年毛利率指引56%，高于市场一致预期93个基点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>不过旺盛需求也对供给端提出考验。此前市场预期2027-2028年低NA EUV极紫外光刻机产能将维持30%的复合增速，目标为2027年出货85台以上、2028年出货110台以上。但阿斯麦直言，现有产能目标已经无法匹配下游客户的真实需求，公司需要进一步扩大产能规模，但暂未公布新的产能目标数值。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>为缓解产能缺口，阿斯麦选择双线并行一方面评估整机制造产能的扩容路径;另一方面加大设备升级业务交付力度，依靠改造现有设备、提升单机吞吐量，部分满足客户的产能诉求，减少对新增整机设备的依赖。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>摩根士丹利以27倍市盈率对阿斯麦进行估值，处于其中期估值区间24-27倍的上限，该估值建立在晶圆厂资本开支持续加码的基础之上。研报同时提示双向风险。上行维度，逻辑芯片厂、HBM与DRAM存储资本开支超预期、设备服务利润率进一步抬升、各国半导体产业扶持政策落地，均有望带动业绩再超预期。而下行风险同样不容忽视，若终端消费电子与算力需求转弱，会引发晶圆厂资本开支收缩、订单向后递延;此外下一代高NA-EUV设备渗透率不及预期，也会压制公司估值水平。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>整体来看，AI浪潮带动光刻机需求持续爆发，除传统新设备销售外，存量升级服务已经成为盈利的重要支柱，但产能瓶颈、下游资本开支的周期性波动，仍是资本市场需要持续跟踪的核心变量。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]