[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio53d356b9":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio53d356b9","HBM越堆越高的逻辑，可能要反转了","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio53d356b9","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>HBM\u003Cspan>越堆越高的逻辑，可能要反转了\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>瑞穗证券昨晚发了份研报——他们的分析师刚跟\u003C\u002Fspan>SemiAnalysis\u003Cspan>总裁\u003C\u002Fspan>Doug O\u003Cspan>‘\u003C\u002Fspan>Laughlin\u003Cspan>吃完晚饭，信息量很大。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网挑几个最核心的结论先说：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>内存还是\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>最大的瓶颈。但这个瓶颈的形状，正在变。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>HBM\u003Cspan>层数可能不升反降。\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003Cspan>出货量反而能增加\u003C\u002Fspan>20-30%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>听着矛盾。往下看你就明白了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>HBM\u003Cspan>层数：风向在变\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>瑞穗刚把美光目标价从\u003C\u002Fspan>1375\u003Cspan>美元砍到\u003C\u002Fspan>1300\u003Cspan>美元，闪迪从\u003C\u002Fspan>1900\u003Cspan>砍到\u003C\u002Fspan>1875\u003Cspan>。应用材料从\u003C\u002Fspan>650\u003Cspan>砍到\u003C\u002Fspan>590\u003Cspan>，泛林从\u003C\u002Fspan>370\u003Cspan>砍到\u003C\u002Fspan>365\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>砍价理由不是需求不行——是\u003C\u002Fspan> \"DRAM\u003Cspan>降规风险\u003C\u002Fspan>\" \u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Doug\u003Cspan>跟我们聊到一个关键判断：\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003Cspan>厂商未来可能在\u003C\u002Fspan>HBM\u003Cspan>上只堆\u003C\u002Fspan>4-8\u003Cspan>层，\u003C\u002Fspan>12\u003Cspan>层的吸引力在下降。\u003C\u002Fspan>16\u003Cspan>层、\u003C\u002Fspan>20\u003Cspan>层\u003C\u002Fspan>HBM\u003Cspan>和混合键合，在未来的\u003C\u002Fspan>DRAM\u003Cspan>世代里充满不确定性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>市场一直预期\u003C\u002Fspan>HBM\u003Cspan>会越堆越高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>现在剧本可能反过来。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>一个关键的逻辑反转：\u003C\u002Fspan>HBM\u003Cspan>少了，\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003Cspan>反而更多\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Doug\u003Cspan>的原话是：\u003C\u002Fspan>HBM\u003Cspan>转换比率在下降，从\u003C\u002Fspan>3:1\u003Cspan>降到\u003C\u002Fspan>5:1\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>逻辑链条非常直接：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>每颗\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003Cspan>用的\u003C\u002Fspan>HBM\u003Cspan>层数减少\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>同样数量的\u003C\u002Fspan>DRAM\u003Cspan>晶圆，能造出更多\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>GPU\u002FAI\u003Cspan>芯片出货量可能增加\u003C\u002Fspan> 20-30%\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>更多\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003Cspan>出货\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>→\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>更多训练和推理需求\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>→\u003C\u002Fspan> KV Cache\u003Cspan>总\u003C\u002Fspan>DRAM\u003Cspan>位元需求反而增长\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>少即是多。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>内存含量下降，出货量上升，总需求不降反升。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>铜缆和光互联：正在抢跑\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Doug\u003Cspan>对铜缆的态度很明确：\u003C\u002Fspan>AEC\u003Cspan>是\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>机架内连接的核心方案。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>CRDO\u003Cspan>走在最前面。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Lumentum\u003Cspan>那边，\u003C\u002Fspan>NPO\u003Cspan>（近封装光学）被管理层定位为\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>增量机会\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>，预计\u003C\u002Fspan>2027\u003Cspan>年底到\u003C\u002Fspan>2028\u003Cspan>年进入市场。\u003C\u002Fspan>InP\u003Cspan>衬底的需求已经严重超过供应。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>CPO\u003Cspan>（共封装光学）呢？还得等\u003C\u002Fspan>2-3\u003Cspan>年。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>短期赢家是铜缆\u003C\u002Fspan>AEC\u003Cspan>和\u003C\u002Fspan>NPO\u002FSiPh\u002FInP\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>CPO\u003Cspan>还早。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>800V\u003Cspan>可能推迟\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>聊到数据中心电力方案的时候，\u003C\u002Fspan>Doug\u003Cspan>提了一个很有意思的观察：数据中心运营商对\u003C\u002Fspan>800V\u003Cspan>高压直流方案有抵触。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>原因很实际——变化太大，员工需要重新培训。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>数据中心正在转向±\u003C\u002Fspan>400V\u003Cspan>双极双路机架。在传统\u003C\u002Fspan>400V\u003Cspan>直流布局上爬坡更容易，对\u003C\u002Fspan>SiC\u003Cspan>和辅助设备的需求反而减少。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>800V\u003Cspan>推迟\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>≠\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>电力需求减少。只是换了一条更慢、更稳的路。更多的电压调节模块会补上来，继续支持\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003Cspan>出货。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>2027\u003Cspan>年的两个大数字\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Doug\u003Cspan>还提到了\u003C\u002Fspan>2027\u003Cspan>年的两个预期：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>XAI\u002FUSPCX\u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan>10GW\u003Cspan>电力\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>5000\u003Cspan>亿美元的\u003C\u002Fspan>NOCL\u003Cspan>资金\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>BIC 2027\u003Cspan>年会给这些项目带来顺风。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>10GW\u003Cspan>是什么概念？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>一个典型核电机组约\u003C\u002Fspan>1GW\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>10GW\u003Cspan>就是\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan>座核电站的电力，全砸进\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>数据中心。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这顿饭的核心结论：内存还是瓶颈，但瓶颈在变形状——层数在降、出货量在升、总位元需求不降。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>短期赢家：\u003C\u002Fspan> AEC\u003Cspan>铜缆（\u003C\u002Fspan>CRDO\u003Cspan>）、\u003C\u002Fspan>NPO\u002FInP\u003Cspan>（\u003C\u002Fspan>LITE\u003Cspan>）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>短期承压：\u003C\u002Fspan> WFE\u003Cspan>设备商（\u003C\u002Fspan>AMAT\u002FMKSI\u002FLRCX\u003Cspan>），目标价已被下调\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>需要观望：\u003C\u002Fspan> CPO\u003Cspan>（还要\u003C\u002Fspan>2-3\u003Cspan>年）、\u003C\u002Fspan>800V\u003Cspan>（可能延迟）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>大方向没变：\u003C\u002Fspan> AI\u003Cspan>算力需求还在往上走。只是技术路线在微调，供应链的赢家和输家在重新洗牌。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股投资网认为，这顿饭最有价值的信息不是某个目标价上调或下调，而是\u003C\u002Fspan>HBM\u003Cspan>层数可能见顶这个信号。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>如果市场一直按\u003C\u002Fspan>\"HBM\u003Cspan>越堆越高\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>的逻辑在给内存和设备商定价，那这个预期的松动，就是最大的风险点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>$CRDO $LITE $AMAT $MKSI $LRCX $MU #\u003Cspan>美股\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FM\u002FMU\u002FMU.jpg","2026-08-26T05:07:09","2026.08.26","2026\u002F08\u002F26",37399,[22],"MU","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]