[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio2e2b618e":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio2e2b618e","大摩拆解英伟达(NVDA)“资产负债表即服务”：股票看高至300美元，信用端保持谨慎","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio2e2b618e","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网获悉，摩根士丹利发布研究报告，从跨资产视角评估英伟达(NVDA)的“资产负债表即服务”(Balance Sheet-as-a-Service)。报告认为，英伟达正越来越多地利用其强劲资产负债表支持AI基础设施融资，股权入股、预付款、租赁、残值支持、未售产能和收入分成安排，正在成为生态算力融资的关键机制。随着或有敞口增长，信用端需要给予更多关注。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>报告核心观点分为股票和信用两大部分摩根士丹利给予英伟达股票“增持”评级，目标价300美元;信用端，则维持“中性\u002F观望”，认为尾部风险仍处于早期、透明度低、规模大，暂不介入。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>股票端给予“增持”评级，目标价300美元\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore给予英伟达股票“增持”评级，目标价300美元。他认为，强劲的季度表现为后续走势奠定了更有利的基础。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>具体来看，Rubin让英伟达重新掌握叙事主动权。与Grace Blackwell Ultra相比，Rubin每兆瓦吞吐量提升30倍，token成本降低35%;每吉瓦对应的机会规模也从Hopper的180亿美元，提升至Blackwell的250亿美元，再到Vera Rubin的400亿美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>管理层对2028财年的评论也非常积极。报告指出，约70%的2028财年收入增长仍严重受供应约束，需求远高于这一水平。随着产品线更加丰富，包括网络、Groq和Vera，英伟达能够获取更高价值。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>毛利率重置则消除了市场担忧。2028财年毛利率指引为72%-73%，与摩根士丹利预期大致一致，主要是将昂贵的存储成本转嫁出去，同时增厚毛利润。供应承诺翻倍以上至2790亿美元，其中1790亿美元覆盖2027-2028财年COGS预估2520亿美元的大部分。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>收入分成尚未计入预测，这将带来上行空间。新云相关机会目前虽小，但增长迅速。仅需部署几个吉瓦，2029财年EPS就有望出现两位数上修，且下行风险有限。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>此外，生态投资和现金回报都将持续。当季股息加回购年化规模超过1000亿美元，明年预计与收入增长大致同步。报告认为，即便通过生态支持消耗部分现金，也仍支撑其价值逻辑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>信用端维持“中性\u002F观望”，尾部风险尚难评估\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>摩根士丹利TMT信贷研究分析师Lindsay Tyler给予英伟达信用“中性\u002F观望”(Neutral | Sidelined)评级。报告称，卓越的增长正把英伟达的资产负债表实力转化为战略AI融资工具，同时引入新风险。模型和相对价值指标表明情况尚可，但尾部风险仍处于早期、透明度低、规模大，因此暂不介入。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>报告预测，到2028年底，英伟达全口径信用敞口将扩大至约2000亿美元;其中约1700亿美元属于“或有敞口”，主要分为三个部分\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>1.约400亿美元与租赁负债相关，包括尚未开始的承诺、合作伙伴租赁担保等;\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>2.约650亿美元与潜在残值支持有关，为撬动超过5000亿美元第三方资本，英伟达可能在某些情况下提供高达25%的残值支持;\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>3.约650亿美元与新收入分成\u002F信用支持模式有关。该模式可能设定最低收入门槛，即当云厂商用英伟达GPU获得的营收超过某个约定值后，英伟达才参与分成，此举有助于缩短客户合同期限并延长融资期限。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>摩根士丹利表示，英伟达信用利差有所改善，但仍建议投资者保持耐心。报告称，英伟达作为Aa1\u002FAA评级的信用主体，交易利差看似偏宽，但考虑到生态系统中至少1万亿美元的GPU\u002FXPU相关创新融资的规模和透明度有限，现在介入仍为时过早。该行对英伟达信用持“中性”立场，其风险在于，或有敞口可能低于预期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]