[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio1333867a":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio1333867a","AI资本开支逼近拐点：股价、盈利与融资风险同时变化","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio1333867a","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股大数据获悉，美股市场内部的分化、融资成本上升与\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>资本开支增速放缓风险正在累积。高盛资深宏观交易员\u003C\u002Fspan>Bobby Molavi\u003Cspan>警告，当前美股越来越依赖少数大型科技股的强势表现，专业投资者却难以从指数上涨中获利，市场脆弱性正在上升。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Molavi\u003Cspan>在最新报告中指出，整个\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>生态系统的相关资产规模已达\u003C\u002Fspan>25\u003Cspan>万亿至\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan>万亿美元，而历史经验显示，股价见顶通常早于资本开支见顶。判断\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>投资周期是否接近拐点，可以观察三大信号：股价与实际盈利背离、信贷市场对\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>借款方重新定价，以及资本开支增速实际放缓。目前，前两项信号已经出现。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>高盛预测，超大规模云服务商的资本开支增速可能于\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan>年三季度见顶，此后逐季回落。与此同时，\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>融资成本上升、股权发行降温，市场对投资回报的审视趋于严格。尽管股票回购仍为美股提供支撑，但高度集中的市场结构意味着，一旦\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>投资预期发生变化，调整可能迅速放大。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>指数创新高，市场内部却日益脆弱\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Molavi\u003Cspan>将当前美股市场形容为“拼命奔跑却原地踏步”。标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>指数不断刷新高点，美国基本面多空策略净敞口却已降至约\u003C\u002Fspan>46%\u003Cspan>，接近\u003C\u002Fspan>2025\u003Cspan>年\u003C\u002Fspan>4\u003Cspan>月市场暴跌期间的低位，反映出对冲基金难以从这轮上涨中获利。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>市场分化是重要原因。报告显示，个股\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan>个月已实现波动率与指数已实现波动率之差已扩大至\u003C\u002Fspan>26\u003Cspan>至\u003C\u002Fspan>28\u003Cspan>个百分点，超过\u003C\u002Fspan>2009\u003Cspan>年约\u003C\u002Fspan>20\u003Cspan>个百分点的历史高点。个股剧烈波动相互抵消，使指数表面平稳，却增加了交易难度。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>当前市场集中度已超过\u003C\u002Fspan>2000\u003Cspan>年互联网泡沫顶峰。报告显示，\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan>只核心\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>相关股票目前占标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>指数总市值的约\u003C\u002Fspan>40%\u003Cspan>。年内表现最好的\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>相关股票平均上涨\u003C\u002Fspan>58%\u003Cspan>，远超标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>指数\u003C\u002Fspan>13%\u003Cspan>和纳斯达克指数\u003C\u002Fspan>22%\u003Cspan>的涨幅，而标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>成分股的中位数个股反而下跌\u003C\u002Fspan>15%\u003Cspan>。此外，仅\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan>只股票的市值就相当于另外\u003C\u002Fspan>434\u003Cspan>只股票的总市值，凸显美股上涨对少数大型公司的高度依赖。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>值得注意的是，流动性已进一步恶化。美国股市日均盘口流动性自\u003C\u002Fspan>2023\u003Cspan>年以来下降\u003C\u002Fspan>21%\u003Cspan>，从约\u003C\u002Fspan>1400\u003Cspan>万美元降至\u003C\u002Fspan>1100\u003Cspan>万美元；每十亿美元交易量对应的盘口深度则从\u003C\u002Fspan>2017\u003Cspan>年的\u003C\u002Fspan>16.2\u003Cspan>万美元降至\u003C\u002Fspan>1.1\u003Cspan>万美元，降幅约\u003C\u002Fspan>93%\u003Cspan>。同期，日均成交量从约\u003C\u002Fspan>65\u003Cspan>亿股增至近\u003C\u002Fspan>190\u003Cspan>亿股。成交量上升而盘口深度萎缩，意味着市场承接大额交易的能力减弱，个股更容易因突发消息大幅波动。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>AI\u003Cspan>资本开支逼近拐点：股价、盈利与融资风险同时变化\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Molavi\u003Cspan>估算，涵盖大型科技公司、云服务商、\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>实验室、芯片及算力基础设施的整个\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>生态系统，相关资产规模已达\u003C\u002Fspan>25\u003Cspan>万亿至\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan>万亿美元，其价值在很大程度上依赖持续扩张的基础设施投资。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>历史经验显示，股价通常早于资本开支见顶。\u003C\u002Fspan>Molavi\u003Cspan>提出的三大观察信号中，股价与实际盈利背离、信贷市场重新评估\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>借款方风险已经出现，资本开支增速放缓则尚待验证。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>首先，远期市盈率可能低估真实估值。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>报告数据显示，\u003C\u002Fspan>2000\u003Cspan>年\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan>月，标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>远期市盈率为\u003C\u002Fspan>25.2\u003Cspan>倍，但按实际已实现盈利计算达到\u003C\u002Fspan>39.3\u003Cspan>倍，按\u003C\u002Fspan>GAAP\u003Cspan>口径计算约为\u003C\u002Fspan>60\u003Cspan>倍。\u003C\u002Fspan>2007\u003Cspan>年，远期市盈率仅为\u003C\u002Fspan>15.1\u003Cspan>倍，但按已实现盈利计算达到\u003C\u002Fspan>31.6\u003Cspan>倍，\u003C\u002Fspan>GAAP\u003Cspan>口径下更超过\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan>倍。\u003C\u002Fspan>Molavi\u003Cspan>据此提醒，远期估值是否合理，最终取决于企业盈利能否兑现。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>其次，\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>融资风险正在被重新定价。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>报告指出，今年已有超过\u003C\u002Fspan>5000\u003Cspan>亿美元债务发行用于支持\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>基础设施建设。多笔知名\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>融资的发行收益率持续上升，投资级和高收益信用利差也开始走阔，表明债权人正提高对相关融资风险的定价。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>第三，资本开支增速可能即将见顶。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>高盛预测，超大规模云服务商的资本开支增速将在\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan>年三季度达到同比\u003C\u002Fspan>116%\u003Cspan>的峰值，到\u003C\u002Fspan>2027\u003Cspan>年底降至\u003C\u002Fspan>20%\u003Cspan>出头。增速见顶并不意味着资本开支总额立即下降，但如果市场此前已按投资持续加速定价，增速放缓仍可能改变投资者对未来回报的预期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>融资环境的变化进一步加大压力。美国月度股权发行数量从\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan>月的\u003C\u002Fspan>65\u003Cspan>笔降至\u003C\u002Fspan>9\u003Cspan>月的\u003C\u002Fspan>24\u003Cspan>笔，季度发行总额则从第二季度的\u003C\u002Fspan>2520\u003Cspan>亿美元降至第三季度的\u003C\u002Fspan>930\u003Cspan>亿美元。次级发行表现疲弱，部分交易被迫撤回。尽管\u003C\u002Fspan>Broadcom\u003Cspan>和\u003C\u002Fspan>SpaceX\u003Cspan>仍在筹备新一轮融资，但利率高企、投资回报不确定性上升，正令买方比上半年更加谨慎。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>回购仍在支撑美股，油价与债市风险同步累积\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>融资趋紧之际，股票回购仍为美股提供支撑。标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>成分股第二季度回购规模同比增长\u003C\u002Fspan>20%\u003Cspan>，美国全年回购授权规模有望创历史新高。不过，回购能否抵消市场对盈利兑现和\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>投资回报的疑虑，仍有待观察。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>宏观层面，法国债市与能源市场的压力也在累积。\u003C\u002Fspan>Molavi\u003Cspan>指出，法德\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan>年期国债利差已触及\u003C\u002Fspan>140\u003Cspan>个基点，为\u003C\u002Fspan>1990\u003Cspan>年以来最高水平，反映市场对法国财政和政治风险的担忧，并警惕压力向其他欧元区国家蔓延。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>能源方面，地缘政治局势反复、航运与保险成本高企，以及炼油产能约束，正在削弱市场的缓冲空间。报告显示，航空煤油价格因合约期限不同处于每吨\u003C\u002Fspan>1100\u003Cspan>至\u003C\u002Fspan>1400\u003Cspan>美元，明显高于长期均值约\u003C\u002Fspan>700\u003Cspan>美元。燃油成本若进一步推高机票价格，可能加重消费者负担，促使部分人选择更近、成本更低的旅行。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Molavi\u003Cspan>的警告并非断言\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>投资已经见顶，而是指出市场正接近重新检验投资回报的关键阶段：股价与实际盈利背离，信贷市场开始提高对\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>借款方的风险定价，资本开支增速也可能转向放缓。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FA\u002FAI\u002FAI2.jpg","2026-10-13T16:20:50","2026.10.13","2026\u002F10\u002F13",30405,[22],"AI","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]